Sunday, August 9, 2009

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 95.50


Despite rising to 95.90 last week, the subsequent sharp retreat from there on Friday suggests a top has been formed there and correction to 94.01 support is likely, however, the greenback should find renewed buying interest above 93.81 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 91.73 to 95.89) and bring a rebound later but said resistance should continue to hold and bring another decline.

In view of this, we are still trading both sides of the market, buy on further fall towards 94.01 or sell on recovery to 95.40. Only a clear break of 96.15/20 (the confluence of 100% projection of 91.73 to 94.80 measuring from 93.09 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45 to 91.73 at 96.16) would extend recent upmove to 96.60/70. Below 93.81 would indicate the rise from 91.73 is over, then decline towards 93.09 support would follow.

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