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Each and every month there are a tremendous number of news releases for the Off Exchange Retail Foreign Currency Market (FOREX). Many of these events and announcements move the markets considerably. But how do you properly capitalize on these moves? Get it wrong and you could be wiped out. Get it right and you can be in a small group of trading elite, consistently pulling pips out of the market each and every week.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 5.4.09

The USD/JPY is trying to build on Friday’s bounce, flirting with the idea of retesting 100 while the S&P futures battle their own demons at 900. Unfortunately, yesterday’s run was backed by light volume, meaning the currency pair’s current upswing could be short-lived. The USD/JPY encounters its first test in our 3rd tier downtrend line, followed by March highs. We notice a head and shoulders formation with the USD/JPY on its right shoulder as we type. Therefore, bulls will be looking for any near-term upward movement to be supported by heavy volume if the currency pair is ready to surpass 100 and April highs.
While the upside has its apparent hurdles, the downside is backed by our 2nd tier uptrend line and the resilience the uptrend has shown thus far in 2009. The USD/JPY’s re-approach of 100 comes with the S&P futures attempting to climb above their critical 900 level. Therefore, the significance of the moment is relayed by each as investors await Thursday’s ECB meeting and the release of America’s stress test results.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 99.79, 100.56, 101.43, 102.14, and 103.15. To the downside, we see supports of 99.20, 98.56, 97.98, 97.11, and 96.33. The 100 level serves as a key psychological barrier with 95 acting as a psychological cushion. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 99.42.

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 95.50

Despite rising to 95.90 last week, the subsequent sharp retreat from there on Friday suggests a top has been formed there and correction to 94.01 support is likely, however, the greenback should find renewed buying interest above 93.81 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 91.73 to 95.89) and bring a rebound later but said resistance should continue to hold and bring another decline.

In view of this, we are still trading both sides of the market, buy on further fall towards 94.01 or sell on recovery to 95.40. Only a clear break of 96.15/20 (the confluence of 100% projection of 91.73 to 94.80 measuring from 93.09 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45 to 91.73 at 96.16) would extend recent upmove to 96.60/70. Below 93.81 would indicate the rise from 91.73 is over, then decline towards 93.09 support would follow.

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6665

Recent upmove gathered momentum after breaking 1.6587 resistance last Friday and the British pound rose to as high as 1.6780 this morning before easing. Friday’s rally caused the Tenkan-Sen to cross above the Kijun-Sen, providing a buy signal and although pullback to 1.6665/70 cannot be ruled out, the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.6626) should hold and bring another upmove later towards 1.6830/40 but price should falter well below 1.6915 (100% projection of 1.5983-1.6587 measuring from 1.6338)

In view of this, we are still looking to buy cable on pullback and only a clear break below 1.6627 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6474 to 1.6780) would defer this bullishness and risk correction towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6559) which is likely to hold from here.

BSE Picks Up 15% in United Stock Exchange

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has revealed that it has purchased 15% stake in the United Stock Exchange (USE), a new entrant in the currency derivatives space.

The sources said that the company, which is having a paid up capital of Rs 150 crore, will now function as a BSE group company. BSE's investment will be Rs 22.5 crore, a 15% of the paid-up capital.

The sources further added that HDFC, Bank of Baroda, Federal bank, Union Bank of India, Allahabad Bank and Bank of India are existing shareholders of USE.

BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR

EURO / US DOLLAR

Until Dollar Traders Take in the NFPs, the RBA, ECB and BoE will Guide the Market

There is a lot of data scheduled over the coming week; and much of it holds the kind of market moving impact that could trigger breakouts. This is fortunate for those that love volatility; because many of the majors are resting on major anti-dollar support levels. All these individual releases aside though, the dollar will be put on the spot light immediately upon the open of Monday’s session in the Far East.

The benchmark currency ended Friday with its lowest close since September 30th. Traders will demand either a retracement or breakout to relieve tension; but it is very likely that this may be based upon pure speculation or risk appetite. This means the US Non-Farm Payrolls report will not lead the symbolic breakout or reversal; but it will likely still have a considerable impact. Ensuring the dollar isn’t the only fundamental mover for the week, we will see two general themes from the calendar. In addition to US payrolls, there are employment change numbers scheduled for Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The other commonality will be rate decision. The RBA, BoE and ECB are all due to deliberate rates and offer statements; and each holds a significant sway over its regional currency..

• RBA Rate Decision – Aug 4th (04:30 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision is the first of the three policy announcements due over the coming week. Of the 19 economists polled by Bloomberg, all believe Governor Steven’s board will keep the benchmark unchanged at 3.00 percent. There is further little disagreement from the market as overnight index swaps are pricing in a negligible probability of any change. Considering previous central bank activity, this seems the likely outcome; but there is always room for surprise – and a hike or cut would be a major catalyst. However, the real influence from this event will likely come from the commentary that follows the announcement. Speculators are ready to believe the central bank is done easing and the next move will be a hike. Confirmation of these predictions (and more prominently, a time frame said hike) would go a long way in for Aussie strength.

• Bank of England Rate Decision – Aug 6th (11:00 GMT)
There is almost no possibility of either a hike or cut from the Monetary Policy Committee next Thursday. Further cuts are naturally limited by the fact that the benchmark is already at 0.50 percent and further easing would essentially usher in a ‘zero interest rate policy.’ And, more to the point, an additional 25-50 basis points of easing would impart little, additional support to the economy. Instead, rate watchers will be looking for any changes to the central bank’s bond purchasing scheme. At the last meeting, the program was kept at 125 billion pounds, suggesting to some that they were not doing enough to revive the economy while others took it as a sign that they were taking the first step towards hikes. The latter prediction is a very long ways off; but the speculation stands. Prime Minister Brown authorized 150 billion; so there is an easy an easy buffer for expansion without sparking fear that the central bank is losing control of the situation. Alternatively, holding steadfast without the proper commentary may strike the market as foolhardy.

• European Central Bank Rate Decision – Aug 6 (11:45 GMT)
Though it does not carry the rates of its Australian and New Zealand counterparts, the euro is backed by one of the highest interest rates among the majors. What’s more, speculation of near-term hikes has gained more traction with the ECB than with nearly every other central bank in this echelon. However, from a fundamental perspective; it would be very ambitious indeed if there was a move to hikes within the next few months. The Euro Zone’s largest economies (Germany and France) seem to be stabilizing; but many of its other members are still mired in recession. Without consumer spending to truly catalyze expansion, banks expected to deliver write downs over the coming year and Eastern Europe threatening to spark a wave of defaults that could swamp the broader credit market once again; there is a good argument for retaining a ‘wait-and-see’ approach.

• Canadian Employment Change (JUL) –Aug 7 (11:00 GMT)
Over the past two months, the Canadian employment data has had a significant, absolute impact on the loonie. However, there are factors working against this release. The first issue to take account of is that it is released on a Friday. There are only a few hours of deep liquidity left before the market thins out for the weekend. This means a fundamental surprise needs to be significant enough to overcome the market’s summation that it is unlikely that a meaningful trend will be born from this individual release. What’s more, with the US labor statistics due out just an hour and a half later, the market often overlooks this indicator (especially for USDCAD) to see how healthy US consumer demand will be for Canadian exports. Nonetheless, this employment data will be vital for benchmarking Canada’s recovery; so expect a short-term and long-term impact.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPS) (JUL) – Aug 12:30 (12:30 GMT)
While different indicators and events go in and out of fad as the markets change; the US payrolls report seems to consistently hold near the top of the market-movers list. The July release will be no different. Looking ahead to the week, the dollar is on the verge of a new trend; but it would be a long wait to hold out until Friday before direction can be found. The technical landscape will likely be very different by the time this event is released; but the impact will still be the same. This is a leading growth indicator; but it doesn’t have the same influence as say the 2Q GDP release in providing scope for how the US will further influence the global economy. This means, barring a major surprise (a reading 200,000 or greater above or below the consensus), this is likely to have a straightforward impact on price action. The consensus calls for a 345,000-person cut in payrolls for the month of July. This would be the smallest drop in 10 months and further expectations of stabilization and the fabled recovery. However, the devil is in the details; and an unemployment rate near 10 percent doesn’t point to growth.

G20 Summit and U.S. Consumer Sentiment Set To Dominate USD Trading

Today's upcoming G20 Summit of the 20 most industrialized nations in Berlin, Germany today is set to dominate USD trading. Additionally, the forex market is set to go very volatile on the publication on the U.S. Import Prices indicator at 12:30 GMT, and the publication of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment indicator at 13:55 GMT. Forex traders are advised to open their Dollar positions now in order to make profits as today's events unravel.
USD - Dollar Drops despite Positive Data from U.S

The Dollar's downtrend continued yesterday as the USD dropped against all the major currencies. The Dollar's most distinct bearish trend was marked against the GBP, as the pair was traded as high as the 1.6620 level.

In accordance to what appears to be developing into a pattern, the USD dropped in spite of some positive figures published from the US economy yesterday. The weekly Unemployment Claims report, which measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, dropped for the fourth time in a row, this time to 601K. The figure is still quite large, and is far from depicting a strong, recuperating economy. However, the trend surely seems to favor the U.S. economy.

The U.S. Retail Sales figures were also published on Thursday, showing a 0.5% increase in the total value of sales at the retail level. This figure reflect a state of mind in which US consumers feel more comfortable to spend, which means they have more confidence that their financial status will improve with time. This kind of behavior is imperative in order to pull the economy out of recession, as only a better cycling of funds has the ability to create a real change in the current gloomy economic conditions.

As for today, there is the G20 Summit in Berlin Germany. Additionally, a batch of data is expected from the US economy, and traders are advised to focus on two main reports. First, the Import Prices which is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. This is one of the earliest publications that try to predict the level of inflation. Traders should also follow the Consumer Sentiment report, as analysts forecast another positive figure for this indicator, which can further support the notion that the U.S. economy returns to the fast lane.

EUR - EUR Looks to Finish the Week Strong

EUR trading on Thursday was highlighted by the EUR/USD climbing back above the 1.4100 level. In a week that was showing bearish movement on the oft-traded pair, the Euro rallied to make up ground on last weeks closing, as it trumped both the greenback and the Yen. Yesterday's push came shortly after the release of US economic data. Positive change in US Retails Sales and Unemployment Claims did not impress enough to drop the EUR for the USD, as the pair went bullish, as traders bought back into higher-yielding assets.
Early Thursday morning, saw the release of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Monthly Bulletin, which reveals data gathered by the ECB Governing Board on the state of the Euro-Zone economy. The report helped get the ball rolling on a bullish EUR trading day.
Traders can look toward Industrial Production at 9:00 GMT and a speech by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet at 11:30 & 15:30 GMT for some indication to how the rest of the day will go for the EUR. Traders should also follow news from the opening of the G20 Meeting in Berlin, Germany throughout the day for any clues on policy that could add volatility to the forex market.

JPY - JPY Moves on Market Volatility

The Yen's high volatility continued yesterday, as it saw contradicting trends against the major currencies. On one hand, the JPY rose 15 pips against the USD yesterday, as the pair closed at the 97.75 level. On the other hand, the Yen dropped over 50 pips against the EUR, closing at 137.86 level.

It appears that lately the Yen is mostly affected by its counterpart currencies. The USD is currently very weak, and thus the Yen consistently appreciates against it. However, the EUR seems quite strong, and its recent appreciation has pushed down the JPY.

Looking ahead to today, traders are expected to follow the main news events from the US and Western Europe, and the commencement of the G20 Meeting in Germany later today. Traders are advised to follow these events very closely as they may set the pace for JPY trading later today.

Crude Oil - Oil Eyes $75 a Barrel

Crude Oil's bullish trend continues as the price of Crude continues to rise. Oil rose 42 cents to finish trading at $72.39 yesterday. The main reason for Crude's bullishness was the positive economic data released from the US economy. The weak Dollar also helped push up Oil prices yesterday. In addition, the International Energy Agency corrected its demand projection and increased it to 120,000 more barrels a day.

The bullish trend of Crude Oil looks to continue, with the potential of reaching $75 a barrel. Traders should follow the data published from the US, and news coming out of the G20 Meeting later today, as these factors are set to play into Crude Oil's bullishness later today.

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