Saturday, August 29, 2009

Forex Signal

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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 5.4.09


The USD/JPY is trying to build on Friday’s bounce, flirting with the idea of retesting 100 while the S&P futures battle their own demons at 900. Unfortunately, yesterday’s run was backed by light volume, meaning the currency pair’s current upswing could be short-lived. The USD/JPY encounters its first test in our 3rd tier downtrend line, followed by March highs. We notice a head and shoulders formation with the USD/JPY on its right shoulder as we type. Therefore, bulls will be looking for any near-term upward movement to be supported by heavy volume if the currency pair is ready to surpass 100 and April highs.
While the upside has its apparent hurdles, the downside is backed by our 2nd tier uptrend line and the resilience the uptrend has shown thus far in 2009. The USD/JPY’s re-approach of 100 comes with the S&P futures attempting to climb above their critical 900 level. Therefore, the significance of the moment is relayed by each as investors await Thursday’s ECB meeting and the release of America’s stress test results.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 99.79, 100.56, 101.43, 102.14, and 103.15. To the downside, we see supports of 99.20, 98.56, 97.98, 97.11, and 96.33. The 100 level serves as a key psychological barrier with 95 acting as a psychological cushion. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 99.42.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 95.50


Despite rising to 95.90 last week, the subsequent sharp retreat from there on Friday suggests a top has been formed there and correction to 94.01 support is likely, however, the greenback should find renewed buying interest above 93.81 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 91.73 to 95.89) and bring a rebound later but said resistance should continue to hold and bring another decline.

In view of this, we are still trading both sides of the market, buy on further fall towards 94.01 or sell on recovery to 95.40. Only a clear break of 96.15/20 (the confluence of 100% projection of 91.73 to 94.80 measuring from 93.09 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45 to 91.73 at 96.16) would extend recent upmove to 96.60/70. Below 93.81 would indicate the rise from 91.73 is over, then decline towards 93.09 support would follow.

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6665



Recent upmove gathered momentum after breaking 1.6587 resistance last Friday and the British pound rose to as high as 1.6780 this morning before easing. Friday’s rally caused the Tenkan-Sen to cross above the Kijun-Sen, providing a buy signal and although pullback to 1.6665/70 cannot be ruled out, the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.6626) should hold and bring another upmove later towards 1.6830/40 but price should falter well below 1.6915 (100% projection of 1.5983-1.6587 measuring from 1.6338)

In view of this, we are still looking to buy cable on pullback and only a clear break below 1.6627 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6474 to 1.6780) would defer this bullishness and risk correction towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6559) which is likely to hold from here.

BSE Picks Up 15% in United Stock Exchange


The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has revealed that it has purchased 15% stake in the United Stock Exchange (USE), a new entrant in the currency derivatives space.

The sources said that the company, which is having a paid up capital of Rs 150 crore, will now function as a BSE group company. BSE's investment will be Rs 22.5 crore, a 15% of the paid-up capital.

The sources further added that HDFC, Bank of Baroda, Federal bank, Union Bank of India, Allahabad Bank and Bank of India are existing shareholders of USE.
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